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Dr. Robert J. Froehlich : Follow the Baby boomers

Document sans titre It has never been more difficult to be a long-term investor in a short-term world than it is today. Short-term issues, that include everything from the subprime mortgage crisis to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bear market in stocks and real estate as well as the dramatic sell-off in commodities, almost appear insurmountable. Indeed, from a short-term perspective, it almost does seem like the world is coming to an end. But remember this: "The end of the world happens only once. And the timeframe within when it can happen is infinity. Are you sure you still want to make a bet that now is the time?"

From my perspective, I think the better bet is becoming a longer term investor and betting on the baby boomers. Here is why.

Who are the Baby Boomers?

You may be wondering just exactly who are the baby boomers? Well, I am one of them. Baby boomers have been one of the most dramatic and influential demographic trends in the history of the United States. As baby boomers are aging, I believe they are prepared to write their final and most dramatic chapter yet. And they are likely to influence the social, business and political fibers of the nation for the next quarter century, all the while creating the potential for unbelievable investment opportunities for us long-term investors in a short-term world.

Baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. In all, there are 76 million of them. The generation prior to the baby boomers (born between 1927 and 1945), numbered only 49 million. That's why it is called a “baby boom.” Viewed another way, over one-third of all living Americans today are baby boomers. When one-third of a country's population can be categorized or classified into one group, not only is that group likely to have great influence, but everything that group touches is likely to change forever. The baby boomers have redefined every stage of their lives. You see, when a few hundred people share an idea, it is interesting. And when a few thousand people share an idea, it may amount to a trend. But when a few million people share an idea, it's a movement. When 76 million people share an idea, it's a revolution.

A Decade-by- Decade Look at the Baby Boomers

To clearly understand what this revolution may mean going forward, maybe we should start by looking backward. At every single stage of their lives, the needs and desires of baby boomers have become the dominant concern for American business and political leaders. Let's take a quick look back at what the baby boomers did on a decade-by-decade basis since they first arrived on the scene.

In the 1950’s, when baby boomers first arrived, something happened that had never occurred before in the history of the United States. There was a diaper industry. And it didn't stop there. As these young baby boomers began to walk, their parents had to put shoes on their feet and the baby shoe sector experienced an explosive growth rate unlike anything it had ever seen before, or has experienced since that time. And when baby boomers took their first steps, they had to be recorded for prosperity. And the photo and camera industry took off as a result.

In the 1960’s, elementary school buildings sprang up everywhere, as did the craze for hula hoops, Barbie dolls and skateboards. And on almost every corner, fast food restaurants were springing up as the baby boomer kids craved hamburgers, fries, fried chicken and pizza. In the 1970’s, baby boomers were becoming young adults and wanted to settle down, get married and raise families. And as the baby boomers sought homes for their families; it created the real estate explosion the country witnessed in the 1970’s.

> Click-here to read the all story

Dr. Robert J. Froehlich is Vice Chairman of DWS Investments and serves as Chairman of the Investor Strategy Committee.

 

 

 

By Dr. Robert J. Froehlich Date 14-12-2008 Print this article

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