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The world's 65-and-older
population is projected to triple by mid-century, from 516 million in 2009 to
1.53 billion in 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In contrast, the
population under 15 is expected to increase by only 6 percent during the same
period, from 1.83 billion to 1.93 billion.
In the United States, the
population 65 and older will more than double by 2050, rising from 39 million
today to 89 million. While children are projected to still outnumber the older
population worldwide in 2050, the under 15 population in the United States is
expected to fall below the older population by that date, increasing from 62
million today to 85 million.
These figures come from
the world population estimates and projections released today through the Census
Bureau's International Data Base. This latest update includes projections by
age, including people 100 and older, for 227 countries and areas.
Less than 8 percent of the
world's population is 65 and older. By 2030, the world's population 65 and older
is expected to reach 12 percent, and by 2050, that share is expected to grow
to 16 percent.
"This shift in the
age structure of the world's population poses challenges to society, families,
businesses, health care providers and policymakers to meet the needs of aging
individuals," said Wan He, demographer in the Census Bureau's Population
Division.
From 2009 to 2050, the world's
85 and older population is projected to increase more than fivefold, from 40
million to 219 million. Because women generally live longer than men, they account
for slightly more than half of the older population and represent nearly two-thirds
of the 85 and older population.
Europe likely will continue
to be the oldest region in the world: by 2050, 29 percent of its total population
is projected to be 65 and older. On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa is expected
to remain the youngest region as a result of relatively higher fertility and,
in some nations, the impact of HIV/AIDS. Only 5 percent of Africa's population
is projected to be 65 and older in 2050.
Countries experiencing relatively
rapid declines in fertility combined with longer life spans will face increasingly
older populations. These countries will see the highest growth rates in their
older populations over the next 40 years.
There are four countries
with 20 percent or more of their population 65 and older: Germany, Italy, Japan
and Monaco. By 2030, 55 countries are expected to have at least one-in-five
of their total population in this age category; by 2050, the number of countries
could rise to more than 100.
Although China and India
are the world's most populous countries, their older populations do not represent
large percentages of their total populations today. However, these countries
do have the largest number of older people -- 109 million and 62 million, respectively.
Both countries are projected to undergo more rapid aging, and by 2050, will
have about 350 million and 240 million people 65 and older, respectively.
The International Data Base
offers a variety of demographic indicators for countries and areas of the world
with populations of 5,000 or more. It provides information on population size
and growth, age and sex composition, mortality, fertility and net migration.
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